2023 Mid-Year Market Outlook and Review
July 13, 2023 •Oak Street Funding
2023 has brought unforeseen financial turmoil with a banking crisis and high interest rates. Recently, Rick Dennen, CEO, and Rob Roach, Underwriting Director, sat down to review the market and discuss its impact on the CPA, RIA, and Insurance industries. In this blog post, we’ll review some of the key events of the banking turmoil of 2023, look ahead to the future of the financial markets and what business owners can do to adapt.
The banking turmoil of 2023 began in March with the unexpected collapse of three major U.S. banks. As news of the bank failures spread, global bank stock prices plummeted, causing widespread concern among investors. The rapid acceleration in interest rates added fuel to the fire, exacerbating liquidity issues and further impacting investment portfolios. The higher inflation that accompanied the turmoil also put additional pressure on credit availability and affordability, affecting businesses and individuals alike.
The market upheaval only slightly impacted deal volume. Despite the turmoil, deals are still taking place, and Oak Street Funding remains a stable partner for businesses seeking capital to fund acquisitions or succession. According to Rob, the turbulence has impacted deal structures slightly, with some sellers holding onto a bit more debt than they have in the past. As a non-SBA lender, Oak Street can customize deals to meet the unique needs and circumstances of clients.
What are the outcomes?
The aftermath of the banking turmoil is likely to shape the future of the financial markets and the industries that rely on them. While this may present challenges for some business owners, it may also pose opportunities for those who are resilient and adaptable. Some of the trends and developments to watch for are:
Consolidation and restructuring
We are likely going to see more consolidation and restructuring of the banking industry, as weaker or smaller banks are acquired by stronger or larger ones. This may require some business owners to change their banking relationships, platforms, or products.
Innovation and diversification
The market climate is also likely to spur innovation and diversification in all industries, as new entrants or incumbents offer alternative or complementary solutions to meet the needs and preferences of consumers and businesses. This could create opportunities for some RIAs, CPAs, and insurance agents to leverage new technologies, platforms, or products to enhance their value proposition, efficiency, or differentiation. Business owners who resist these changes may fail to keep up with the shifting landscape, regulations, or expectations of their clients or partners.
Resilience and sustainability
The banking turmoil is also likely to foster resilience and sustainability in the financial markets, as regulators and stakeholders demand higher standards of performance, governance, and accountability from financial institutions. This could create opportunities for some RIAs, CPAs, and insurance agents to demonstrate their trustworthiness, professionalism, and social responsibility to their clients and partners. However, it could also bring stricter rules, audits, or disclosures from regulators or partners.
How can business owners adapt?
The turmoil highlights the importance of being prepared, prudent, and proactive in a volatile and uncertain environment. To navigate the challenges, Rob Roach recommends business owners stay informed of the latest regulations and maintain accurate books. “Be prepared for opportunities by keeping your house in order so you don’t have to rush to clean up your business when the time comes,” he advised. Rick added, “Run your business every day like you’re going to sell it, making it as efficient and compliant as possible.” Following best practices every day will ensure the best possible outcomes in the face of changes. Business owners who choose to adapt rather than resist changes can expect more opportunities and rewards.
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond
Looking to 2024 and beyond, business owners must remain vigilant, stay informed, and strike a balance between caution and opportunity. Learning from the past and maintaining a fluid approach will help business owners navigate through the challenges ahead and seize the opportunities that arise. “Warren Buffett believed that out of turmoil comes opportunity,” said Rick, and it is through resilience and adaptability that business owners will thrive in the new normal.
RIAs, CPAs, and insurance agents can navigate the market environment through the rest of 2023 and into 2024 by:
- Staying informed,
- Maintaining accurate records,
- Following best practices,
- Balancing caution and opportunity, and
- Remaining fluid.
Disclaimer: Please note, Oak Street Funding does not provide legal or tax advice. This blog is for informational purposes only. It is not a statement of fact or recommendation, does not constitute an offer for a loan, professional or legal or tax advice or legal opinion and should not be used as a substitute for obtaining valuation services or professional, legal or tax advice.